Sasol’s latest trading statement pushes the turnaround story a step further, flagging a sharp rise in earnings and cash-generation for the year to 30 June 2026. The group expects earnings per share (EPS) of R17.50–R19.50 versus R10.60 last year, headline earnings per share (HEPS) of R36–R40 from R35.13, and adjusted earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (adjusted EBITDA) of R58 billion–R62 billion compared with R51.8 billion. Management cites higher sales volumes and a stronger Brent crude oil price as key drivers.
The split between EPS and HEPS is telling. Headline earnings, which strip out certain one-off items, are up only modestly, while reported earnings are set to rise far more. That gap suggests non-recurring gains or reduced charges influenced the bottom line this year, while the improvement in adjusted EBITDA points to healthier underlying operations. Higher volumes hint at better plant reliability and logistics flow-through, areas that have constrained Sasol’s chemicals and fuels output in recent years.
Timing also matters. The guidance arrives as global oil prices have firmed and parts of the chemicals cycle show early signs of stabilisation, offering a tailwind to a balance sheet still working through years of volatility and heavy capital spend. For South African investors, stronger operating cash flow could support debt reduction and provide more room for essential maintenance and decarbonisation commitments, but durability will depend on sustaining volumes, keeping costs in check, and managing domestic infrastructure frictions.
Attention now turns to the detailed results: clarity on the sources of the EPS uplift relative to headline earnings, updates on operational stability at key South African sites, progress on logistics and energy reliability, and any refresh to capital allocation, including spending on emissions reductions. Watch also how management frames sensitivity to Brent crude oil and the rand, and whether chemicals pricing momentum is carrying into the new financial year.
In practical terms, Sasol raises FY26 EPS and adjusted EBITDA guidance sharply — EPS R17.50–R19.50 and adj. EBITDA R58bn–R62bn, driven by higher volumes and stronger Brent oil. The next checkpoint is the next communication from JSE SENS on SOL, which should confirm whether momentum is building.
For more detail, read the full announcement.