The Bureau for Economic Research has published its latest consensus outlook, compiling forecasts and a set of activity and sentiment indicators — including business, consumer, purchasing managers’, building and civil confidence indexes. The release bundles short-term expectations across sectors to give a quick read on where momentum is shifting.
For investors, these indices act as early signals of demand, production and sentiment that can presage turns in corporate earnings, construction activity and consumer spending. Movements in the purchasing managers’ index and business confidence in particular can foreshadow changes in economic growth and market risk appetite.
Watch for differences between the consensus forecast and real-time data over the coming months: persistent downside surprises would raise the odds of weaker growth, while improvements in confidence measures could support a steadier recovery. Read the full details in the full announcement.